Three Months in the Tiny House

The Way It Is

Confused ?

New Alarm System

Outdoor Oven/Grill

30 days in the tiny house

Wash Day at the Tiny House

Sometimes less is More.

Tiny House Conclusion

Almost Done.

Tiny House 10

Tiny House 9

Tiny House #8

Alternate Universe

An Alternate Universe

In an alternate universe up maybe down and lies may be the truth but in the world we live in some concocted theory is not a basis in fact. In the world we live in there is no such thing as an economic fact (too many variables dependent on perception) which is why economics is based in economic theory, which in turn is why we are in so much economic trouble. From here this post could take a bunch of different directions so I will guide the prose down the path I believe will identify the biggest problem we face today.

Now remember this is coming from an old redneck that knows a couple big words but operates in a world of common sense where lofty ideology and advanced degrees don’t mean a hill of beans. It doesn’t take an Ivy League education to know that you can’t spend more than you make and if you do it will have to be paid back at some point with interest. A concept our elected representatives can’t seem to understand, a concept that is miscomprehended by the population. Pay the interest on the debt but never pay the debt. The government is a service organization, we pay for protection and for public services, we hire representatives to look out for our interests because we are paying a lot for those services and the propensity for corruption is high. This is the same corruption we fought a Revolutionary War to get away from. Yet here we are cornered by the very people we pay to protect us and involuntarily forced to pay more for ideological social change we don’t want. I was once told by a group of Spanish speaking illegal’s that there was no need for them to learn English because the U.S. would soon be a Spanish speaking country. Are we weak or stupid? The answer is, we are both.

I can’t believe the idiocy I hear and read these days. The days of me trying to explain the truth about economics and politics is coming to an end. I’ve warned and given the signals that indicate a change is taking place. Maybe a monarchy or a socialist nation is what you want, it certainly appears that way.

The biggest problem we face today is a population that lives in an alternative universe where stupid is smart and weak is strong.

A Glimmer of Hope

There is a glimmer of hope on the horizon but before I get into that lets see what Barb has to say about the tiny house project.

Now on to the subject of this blog post. Dr, Ben Carson has named Terry Giles as his campaign manager and set up a PAC to investigate a possible presidential run in 2016. That sounds like he is going to run to me. Now there is a man I could get behind. I was worried that Hillary would run away with the show but with someone like Dr. Carson to run against I don't think she stands a chance.

The equities market has lost 300 points this week and is acting way more civilized than I thought it would in this transition from bull to bear but the big swings may yet show up in the coming weeks. The important thing is that we are finally seeing some sense out of the Wall Street crowd. The market should continue to slowly correct, unless the Fed does or says something stupid, to a point where deflation decreases tangible asset prices to a realistic value. The problem is - when is the last time natural progression proceeded in an orderly manner ? When the government is involved - NEVER. This correction is going to happen now or in the near future, the Fed can't keep the market propped up forever.

Financial Literacy

Big words and lofty phrases always impress me because there is an opportunity to learn something new. Unfortunately I am disappointed 80% of the time. By the time I look up the word or find out what the phrase means I also find the words or phrases are used out of context or that the person saying these words doesn’t really understand the meaning. The title of this post is one of those disappointments – FINANCIAL LITERACY. I heard it the other day in a presentation about investing for the future. I don’t remember what the spiel was but I sure do remember the phrase and I remember trying to figure out what they meant because low and behold the phrase was used out of context. I went back to the presentation because I remembered where it came from and here is what an old redneck gleaned from FINANCIAL LITERACY. Literacy means to read and comprehend, Financial means things of monetary value. Now I don’t know about the world you live in but in my world that is a fancy phrase for common sense and common sense tells me that this phrase was used to bait anyone looking to invest their hard earned money into an OXYMORON.

Our entire existence has come to be resting in the laps of sophisticated education, big words and lofty phrases. No one knows what is being said or being done because they hide the truth in the weeds of words and empirical implications all designed to suit the purpose of the one saying it or the interpretation of the one reading or listening to it. When is the last time the Ivy League educated head of the Federal Reserve has done the right thing or even said the right thing – it’s a trick question. NEVER. Volcker got lucky during the Reagan administration but that wasn’t the plan. How about our double talking Secretary of State ( you can take your pick ) or our incoherent President and Representatives – you can take your pick here too. The judicial Branch might as well be part of the Executive branch, even the general population weighs in at 47% totally useless.

Yeah, I am mad, on a rant ….. whatever you want to think but as Israel is fighting for its life, as we are closing embassies’ in the middle east, as our borders are being invaded and as Russia is shooting civilian planes out of the sky, all our government can do is go on vacation without confronting even one of the issues. My family has been involved in every conflict this nation has had since the Spanish American War – the last two (Viet Nam and Iraq/Afghanistan) our country walked away from. I can’t count the number of people I knew that died in Viet Nam and my son could tell you the same thing in Iraq and Afghanistan. We the people have given up our responsibility of keeping our country on the right path and instead entrusted the lyingest, cheatingest, stealingest political system in our history to take us into a depth of despair we have not seen since the Civil War. We have been duped by big words and fancy phrases when common sense is the only solution.

Here We Go.

Pay attention - signs of economic woe are mounting and widely unreported. If you have been reading this blog for a while you are pretty well versed in fundamental economic concepts and financial manipulation so I won't bother with the background information for this opinion piece.

We have missed the last 6 equity market corrections because of Fed currency printing. They never happened, artificially postponed by all the Q.E's. Last week I said watch the markets, I know the market will react to our political lack of leadership while the world falls apart but more importantly I expect Wall Street will start to see reality and the bulls will turn bears after the next full moon. I am kidding about the full moon but you can see how timid the market has become in the last few days and in the coming weeks the volatility will start to swing. Like a cat slowly creeping in on it's pray, someday soon the traders will see that they have been stalking a mirage. The really smart guys are starting to say the same things, they can back it up with research and financial models while an old redneck like me comes at it from common sense. Like a female member of the Clinton family once said " what difference does it make at this point ". I think we are getting a pretty good idea of how this will play out.

The Swiss and the Chinese have made a deal to trade in their own currencies adding to the list of other countries circumventing the Dollar. The Euro Zone countries have been playing with negative interest rates while our Central Bank has been experimenting with reverse repo rates to raise interest rates in a unconventional way ( that's a nice way of saying unreported ) and New Zealand has raised it's interest rates by 25 basis points. The Queen of negative interest rates is trying to raise interest rates, what's up with that ? Could she have figured out that printing currency and lowering interest rates at the same time are counter productive or is there an underlying weakness in the dollar from 4 trillion in funny money in addition to another trillion in unreported treasury purchases through Belgium ( that's what I call the tapper that wasn't ). How does the Feds balance sheet look now ?

Bottom line is consumer confidence is a big deal in a market driven economy and after 6 years of a president that didn't exist until he was elected the world has figured it out and him out. He will never do the right thing, he will never lead and anything he says is subject to change with no prior notice. No backbone leads to lack of confidence and no confidence in the Greatest Nation on Earth means the whole world falls apart and the U.S. takes an economic bath. I really hope you are paying attention because the warning signs are flashing, the train is leaving the station and I hope you are on board. The next train isn't scheduled until 2020.

I Think I've Figured It Out.

In the last post I said something didn't feel right about our economic outlook and I'd get back to you when I figured it out. Well I think I've got it.

I am constantly watching the water level in our economic dam and over the last 6 years there has always been one thing or another that threatened to overflow that economic dam. How we have managed to not suffer more economic damage than we have to this point has been very successfully hidden. There has recently been a lot of rain in the mountains ( trouble in the world ) and nothing is being done to keep all that water from not only flooding our economic dam but breaking it.

Our southern border in being overrun and nothing is being done.

Israel is fighting for it's life and our president is blaming them for starting the fight.

We armed and trained the terrorist that are taking over Iraq and nothing is being done.

Putin has murdered 298 people by shooting down an airliner and nothing is being done.

Obama said if Iran didn't meet the dead line for shutting down nuclear enrichment he would be the first one to put more sanctions on Iran and now he wants to give them a 4 month extension.

Our economy still sucks and nothing is being done.

Eric Holder has expanded Operation Choke Point to unimagined levels and no one says anything.

The Fed chair woman is experimenting with reverse repo re-discount rates and no one cares.

Europe has become so timid they can't get out of their own way.

And the U.S. population is too stupid to see the warning signs.

This is all coming to an end real soon - watch the stock market next week and maybe you will get some sense of the urgency you should have right now.

Is the World Falling Apart Or Is It Just Me ?

A little progress on the tiny house on a trailer.

Doesn't it feel like every day something major happens around the world that will affect us. Here in the U.S. it seems like every day there is something negative. I know when I go somewhere or do something that isn't right I can feel it, a kind of feeling that I should pay attention. That's the feeling I have been getting for the last few months - a lot more pronounced than the last few years. Maybe I have fallen down the rabbit hole but I don't think so, something is about to happen   and it won't be good. I'm going to try and get a handle on this inclination and I'll get back to you when I figure it out.

Paint on the Tiny House

You folks seem to like the video at the beginning of the blog posts - so here we go.

Now on to more serious matters, namely indications of economic conditions. There has been a lot of bad news in Europe and the Middle East and of course we have our own domestic problems but on a more fundamental level we are seeing an economic trend worldwide toward more financial manipulation. We of course know we are the trend setters in manipulation of every kind and now we have France wanting to debase their monetary supply by printing more currency to be more competitive in the world market place. The same country that proclaimed last month that 60% of their debt was illegal. Doesn't it seem a little coincidental that the head of the IMF is French. How about Germany - the driving force of the EU - looking for more bail outs because half of their country is bankrupt. Here in the U.S. we have the president asking for 4.2 billion to deal with the illegal children coming over the Mexican border when it would only cost 100 million to fly them back home - could that money be for funding a bunch of other things ? He won't say.

I read an article recently by Dr. Rickards about how important the next policy statement of the Fed is to the direction of our economy. If they continue the tapper on QE 3 it will drive us further into recession and if they pause on the tapper or reverse the tapper it will cause international loss of confidence in the our financial system. I don't know but it sounds like there is no way out that isn't going to cause us pain. Exactly how sure are you that our government will do the right thing ?

The Bottom Line on Our Economy

There is a thing called the 3rd generation paradigm in business and you have all seen it happen to successful businesses throughout time. The first generation builds the business through hard work and sacrifice, the second generation expands and improves the business, then the third generation milks the business into non existence. There are a lot of different variations on the theme but the bottom line is at some point most businesses are sold out, go into bankruptcy or are leveraged to become unrecognizable to what the founders had in mind when they started the business.

The same thing happens with government. Do you think your grand parents see our current Federal Government as the same one they had when they were growing up ? In the business paradigm there is always a generation that is aloof and could care less about the business - except the money and power which in turn leads to the eventual downfall of the business. FDR (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) was one of those and here we are 3 generations later with another one. This administration could care less about our founding principles, he has never fought for or sacrificed anything and certainly has no experience in the business of our government. The end result will be unrecognizable to what the founders had in mind and we the people will either be sold out to another form of government or have to pick up the pieces and shore up the foundation through sacrifice and hard work.

Building a tiny house 4

Conformity

I've borrowed a passage from Barbs new book for my blog post this week - I hope she doesn't sue me.

"I am overwhelmed by all the things that are going on around us, and I bet you are, too. What 

can you do about it? Hang on and hope for the best? The U.S. has changed so much that it can never go 

back to the "good old days" – and were they so good anyway? But the encroachment of bigger and 

bigger government in this country means that many of our personal freedoms have been curtailed or, in 

some cases, eliminated completely. 

 

So what do we do when we don't know what to do? We look at what other people are doing 

and take our cues from them. In 1951, Solomon Asch, a pioneer in the field of social psychology, wanted 

to see how far people would conform to the opinions of others. Previous research had shown that, 

when a situation is ambiguous, in that there is no right or wrong answer, people tend to go along with 

what others do. Asch set up a situation in which the answers were completely unambiguous. He had 

research participants judge the lengths of lines, showing them a line to compare to three other lines. 

The question was very simple: Which of the three lines is this one most like? The answer was always 

very clear. If I were to show you those comparisons, you'd think I was crazy to ask you. But what Asch 

did was have each research participant sitting at a table with other people. The participant believed 

that the others at the table were also participants but, in fact, they were confederates who had been 

told how to respond on certain critical trials. On the first few trials the confederates gave the obvious, 

correct answer, as did the real participant. But on the critical trials, the confederates gave an incorrect 

answer; in the original experiment, all the confederates gave the same incorrect answer. When the 

participant's turn to respond came, he (the participants were all male) faced a dilemma. It was clear 

what the answer was, but all these other guys gave the incorrect answer. What did the real participant 

do? 

 

Asch believed that, because the answer was so clear, participants would ignore what the others 

said and give the correct answer. However, what he found was that, averaging across all participants, 

one-third of the responses on critical trials were incorrect. Overall, 75% of the participants gave at least 

one incorrect answer. In a control condition, with no confederates, the error rate was less than 1%. 

 I should point out that the conforming responses of the real participants decreased if one of the 

confederates gave an answer different from the rest of the group, especially if he gave the correct 

answer. 

Social psychologists have studied conformity ever since and have concluded that the tendency 

to conform is strong. 

 

The reason I brought this up is that we look at others to find out what to do. If it seems that no 

one is doing anything to alleviate the problems, we think that doing nothing is the thing to do. The 

problem is that we have very little information about what others might be doing. I doubt anyone who 

sees me in the grocery store thinks that Ray and I are preparing the best we can for what might be 

coming. 

 

We are accumulating three-month's-worth of food. There are a number of firms who will sell 

you what I call "apocalypse" supplies; they are expensive and I see no need to buy that stuff. We will 

soon have enough canned vegetables and meat, dried beans, rice, and other relatively nonperishable 

staples to last us three months. Don't buy it all at once, at the same place; Ray says it's like making 

moonshine. You don't buy 200 pounds of sugar at one store. Someone will know that you are up to 

something. And it is relatively inexpensive to do it a little bit at a time by buying a small package of beans or rice or a couple of extra cans of tuna each week. Unless you have a big family, you don't need 

to buy the biggest packages; the food could spoil and go to waste before you use it all. You don't want 

to have 50-pound bags of flour around to get weevil-ridden."

What's next ?

I do these little editorials on this blog ahead of videos or audios about the progress on different projects Barb and I have going on to make our retirement more enjoyable and prosperous. The reason for the editorials is that it is the only warning you are going to get for when things change - not for the better. You will wake up one morning and enough will have changed that it will affect every aspect of your life. No one can tell you what will trigger the events that will unfold but everyone is in agreement that it won't be good. Barb calls it anticipatory dread, I think it is good common sense to be prepared for mid range eventuality, some place between hyper inflation and complete Armageddon. I track a lot of stuff every day, mostly economic data, before I go to work and then again at the end of the day to see what the politicians have messed up during the day. I've done this all my life because it is paying attention that has been the difference between going broke or remaining in business.

We all know our government is grossly mismanaged, that this administration has no clue until it is published in the news, so it makes it kind of easy to figure out what Obama will do next - follow what the Euro Zone or the IMF or the UN are doing. When something happens like Benghazi or the flooding of the Mexican Border he can't follow anybody so he does nothing, pretends he didn't know, makes something up to cover up his lack of action. Well this week there is something happening at the IMF ( International Monetary Fund ) and you can bet the lost puppy will follow the head of the IMF home. Christine LaGarde, the head of the IMF, has released working papers that say when countries have deficit problems to avoid default they should nationalize pension plans as a way to gain capital and call it an investment in government. They should levy a one time wealth tax of 10% and call it the price you pay for being wealthy and to extend the maturity date of government bonds so they don't have to pay the principal. All it takes is one more drop of rain to break the dam - could this be it ?

What's a Person to Do ?

Lets see if I have this right.

Bulgarians are running on the banks, Obama wants us to have the same social structure as France, the radical faction of the Sunni sect of Islam is overrunning Iraq, our southern borders are being assaulted by illegals, the problems at the VA are way worse than has been reported and the IRS is way out of control. That's the tip of the iceberg, that's what we've seen this week. There is no question in my mind that things are going to change real fast, real soon.

Here's a short audio file on the progress at the tiny house.

Drilling a water well.

Since we are going to move out to the house project property we figured we better get the well in. We scheduled the drilling operation with a recommended well driller about a month ago and yesterday he came to do the work. I don't know how I get so lucky but this guy set up, drilled the well, installed the well casing all by himself. He didn't get started until noon time and was out of there by 6 o'clock, I've never seen anyone drill a well alone - it's at least a two person operation.

Around our area water wells are about 300 to 400 feet deep but we sit pretty close to the top of a mountain so who knows how deep it would be. He could have drilled 300 feet and I wouldn't know any different but it ended up 60 feet into the bedrock and 65 feet of dirt for a total of 125 feet and 8 gallons a minute. What great work this guy does. He had to come out this morning to grout the well casing and have it witnessed by the Health Department. We'll have the pump installed next week. There is no question about who I would recommend  to drill or repair a well around here, I guess I owe the guy who recommended him to me a little sipping liquor.

Quick Update

A couple of weeks ago the Austrian government declared that 60% of their sovereign debt was illegal laying the ground work for default. Today was the day they started to default. This is the exact same country that started the debt default crisis back in the late 20s and early 30s. Is this the signal for things to come ? It's something to think about. By the way, on the article about tappering by the Fed, I forgot to mention that the Fed isn't really tappering anyway - in the past few months they have bought almost a quarter trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds through I think Belgium, off the books of course, no reporting. The Tapper looks good to the U.S. population but it is clearly more manipulation.

Why the Federal Reserve has to Tapper.

Why the Federal Reserve has to Tapper

I have been hesitant to post a piece on this subject because I find it difficult to imagine a world with no common sense. Yet I keep hearing relatively reputable economist arguing the case for why the Fed can’t keep tapering the quantitative easing. I've always subscribed to the idea that simpler is better because I personally can’t understand complicated things. The idea that a butterfly flapping its wings in one part of the world will cause a hurricane in another part of the world is plainly beyond my comprehension. The idea that the Fed can continue quantitative easing when it produces no desired results for 4 years would be another of those incomprehensible things. The Federal Reserve is a private business, yes it is owned by the big banks and yes it is up to its eyeballs in politics but it is not part of the Federal Government. There is a profit mandate that governs every business, if you don’t turn a profit or at least break even you go out of business sooner or later. The Fed has no exemption from this business principle although they can’t be audited without an act of congress but you can’t escape the reality of going broke by not reporting the facts or under reporting.

Essentially the Fed is the governments’ bank, they buy Treasury Bonds from the government – loans that have to be paid back with interest – bonds are the collateral.  They are stewards of the dollar, controlling the physical amount and value of dollars in circulation by regulating deposit requirements and interest rates on “participating banks” in the private banking system. In the last few years the Fed has been buying a whole bunch of government low yield bonds and a whole bunch of debt (sub-prime mortgages) from the very banks that own them the “participating banks”   $4,000,000,000,000.00 worth.  These sub primes the Fed has bought will be a very big loss and as the Treasury Bonds mature they will be replaced with an even lower yield bonds as the government can’t survive without borrowing money and no one else will buy the bonds. This is not a balance sheet or income statement I would want to try to defend and somebody is going to have to try to do exactly that to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. To add insult to injury the Fed has been doing some “off balance sheet” swaps with the ECB to bail out the Euro but because the transactions are unreported the amounts are unknown. Best guess – since 2009, 10 trillion dollars swapped for Euros, SDRs and other foreign currencies.

The Fed has to make an effort to cut their losses and tapering is the very least they can do.

Slow Week

For the last couple of weeks we have been working on a lot of change - getting a well driller scheduled, fiber optic cable scheduled, getting our vehicles squared away for another year, Barb got in a little practice with her new gun and a little work on the tiny house project. Still have to deal with the postal service though.

\\\\\loooooooo this is what the cat writes when she pounces on my laptop while I try to write.

A lot of lag time waiting on engineers, dealing with the health department, paperwork, driving up and down the road. I think we are all done with the peripheral stuff for the move out to the property where we are building the house. Barb has started writing a new book and is practicing card counting for when the new casino opens here in town and I am looking at a couple of commodity trades and getting up to speed on the bad old days of option trading of equities - there is a lot more regulation than there used to be. You know you can make money when the stock market corrects - right ? 

There isn't a day that doesn't go by without some scandal or other signal that we're not in Kansas anymore, it is time for us to take the offensive and exert some control over what happens in our lives. Everyone has different levels of tolerance, we  have reached the end of ours. Barb had her personal checking account hacked and the bank caught it so she didn't lose anything but she has to leave the account open because social security takes 2 months to re-direct her retirement payments to a new account. For 2 months it will be a race to the bank to see who gets those 2 checks, the hackers or Barb. I guess we can pay the bank to hold those deposits but that isn't right. I keep meaning to write a piece on why the Federal Reserve has to keep the taper of quantitative easing, maybe next time.

Keeping Up to Date.

A Gentle Nudge in the Right Direction

Since I have warned you folks of what I think will be the results of 5 years of a very inept government administration, I feel I should keep you up to speed on the bread and butter issues as we approach the unknown. I would really like to tell you why the Fed has to taper their quantitative easing but I will have to defer that conversation to a later date because of new information about your retirement accounts.

We all know what has happened in Greece, they have leveraged retirement accounts with the EU for bailout funds, that’s old news. They need another bailout, no surprise there. Here’s the deal, they don’t have any collateral, so the EU (European Union) has hatched a new plan to take the public road system and public buildings as collateral against the new loan. So now not only will the Greeks only get pennies on the dollar of their retirement accounts but their roadways and buildings will be sold to the highest bidder when they default once again – anyone looking to buy a country at a liquidation sale ? On another front Ecuador has delivered 466 thousand ounces of gold to Goldman Sachs as collateral for a 3 year lease deal to pay its bonds to the Chinese for the money they borrowed from them. I think the total Ecuadorian indebtedness to the Chinese is around 11 billion dollars so a quick 20 million won’t keep them off the hook for long. Lastly the ECB (European Central Bank) has for the first time in history lowered interest rates to negative, a very dangerous precedence and something our own Fed has hinted at recently. Let’s see what the implications are for the US.

The president is at the G7 today and he warned the UK to stay in the EU. This administration has no idea what to do in the US and he is giving advice to the UK, that can only mean one thing, he is planning to take your retirement accounts in the same way the EU does it in Europe. It will be to protect you from consumer fraud, he will take your IRAs, 401Ks and Annuity Accounts and give you government bonds – low yield government bonds and tie them to the economy. Remember he set up MYRA bonds at the beginning of the year, that’s where your retirement account will go and you lose all control of your own money.  Well why not he got away with government controlled health care – a 10% tax on every person that pays taxes – doesn't it follow that he would take your retirement and promise future payments while spending your money giving freebies to the illegal aliens and the undeserving.

Regulations.

It seems everything has some kind of regulation to restrict it's use.

Reminds me of the old Five Man Electrical Band song "Signs". In order to do what you want with what you own you have to comply with the laws and the regulations as the result of the laws. The land we are building on is unrestricted and there is no zoning but to build a house we have to involve the county building department and the statewide building code is enforced. We could pitch a tent and live there, it would be legal from the building departments standpoint but the health department would have a problem with waste disposal. You need water so we could collect water from run off or get it from a stream both which are illegal according to the EPA at which point the health department becomes involved because the purity of the illegal water is now in question. By building a tiny house on a utility trailer we are outside of the purview of the building department, the septic system is in and the well will be drilled in a few weeks so we have eliminated the EPA and the health department but we do fall squarely into DOT regulations and there is no getting around that. 

The simplest thing I can think of is a kids lemonade stand but that has to be FDA approved and a vendors permit paid which brings in the local health department. Even the simplest of things are restricted by back door regulations. Pay checks are almost non existent, no one pays with cash, no federal agencies issue checks - direct deposit - which gives some one access to your bank account. Are we formulating a conspiracy theory here ? All I am saying is think about it. Little pieces one at a time is how a puzzle is put together, how much of the puzzle has to be put together for you figure out the end result.

Don't you wish things were different

Look at Detroit to see how things will be in your neighborhood.

We have put it off for as long as we can and even though we can still afford our lifestyle we won’t be able to for the next 6 years. It’s going to get worse before it gets better. Our grocery bill keeps going up along with utilities, insurance, taxes, gas and even the one thing we have paper on, our house in Missouri where the mortgage payments increased by $360 this year because of insurance and property tax increases. We started a new business last year that will lose money for the next two and a half years, other than that we are pretty much on fixed income.

We have known our economic woes were coming since 2007 and even tried moving out of the county to lessen the impact on our diminishing ability to produce revenue because of old age. We have been hoping the government would do the right thing and lower the tax rate, promote oil and gas exploration, rebuild infrastructure, cut back on spending, get immigration under control, promote small business, anything to move us in the right direction. Now it’s too late. Watch the stock market for a correction, pay attention to what is happening with foreign governments especially in Asia and the EU, when one fails there will be a domino effect that will trigger the deflationary trend the Federal Reserve is so worried about. It could happen today or any day between now and 15 months from now. I can’t see how it can be avoided, I could be wrong but we have decided to consolidate now and hope we can be done before things start getting really messed up.

We moved into a cash position several years ago, hedged our bet with land and 2 small entrepreneurial enterprises which left us renting a place to live for the last 4 years. The only thing left is to shed the rent by moving to the property where we are currently building a house but the house won’t be ready for at least 18 more months. I’ve got 2 months to build something legal and ready to live in - stay tuned to see how that turns out.

Build a House on a Trailer ???

I don't have to go outside to know what the weather is like. I can look out the window, look at a calendar to see what season it is, look up a forecast, I could even ask someone who has been outside. Using that same type analysis anyone can tell what the economy is doing, look at the stock ticker, read the numbers on unemployment, look at the data on GDP, see what kind of deficit we are running, check out all the new taxes that have been passed ( there is a real good one coming next month ). So could you tell me why, with all the information at our finger tips, can no one see the bad economic times that are right on our door step. During the cold war everyone built bomb shelters, building codes take into consideration weather and seismic forecast, lots of folks go into debt to take advantage of a good sale and the most popular thing to do in this guaranteed bleak economic forecast is to buy guns and ammunition. I am all for protecting what is mine but from whom ? If you think from the government your an idiot, they have been taking your stuff for years and you haven't done diddly. You don't stand a snowballs chance in a sauna, put your money into prepaid funeral expenses. Now burglaries and personal protection - that's a whole nother story and you better be talking to whatever law enforcement is in your area about what you can or can't do.

I've read and heard so many stories about this wild west mentality that I can't help but think that most of this gun mania comes from folks who have watched too many movies and have no clue about the real world. Kind of like being presented all the facts about impending gloom in the economy and buying guns to ward off the lifestyle change that is sure to happen. Didn't the price of work boots double in the 70's, the sales were to kids who had no intention of working, they thought they looked cool. I think the gun mania is the same kind of deal which presents a really big problem all by itself. So now when a law enforcement issue arises on any level the issue isn't talked or argued about it is met by lethal force. We cause our own problems.

Point of No Return

Probability Theory

I mentioned in passing on an audio file that I could tell you the day that what everyone is expecting in the economy would happen will happen and I can. Like everything else there is a point in time when things change but no one notices. After a while you realize that was the thing that changed everything. When Clinton was president he passed the Affordable Housing Act, that was the day things changed in residential real estate, allowing people who couldn’t afford a house to buy one anyway. It was popular but unsustainable, no one did anything about it until it crashed the system ( by the way they are pushing this same agenda again ). Well being able to tell you when the system will crash again is one of those type deals. It’s just a matter of time and manipulation as to when the system collapses after the event that changes everything happens. You’ve said you what to know so here it is - the day that this administration signs on to an agreement with the IMF and their 188 member nations to replace the dollar with the SDR as the reserve currency of the world. This happened at the G20 in April 2009 when our president endorsed the global plan and a democratically controlled congress went along with it. There has been a lot of manipulation since then and if you folks would pay attention once in a while you would see how this plays out. It’s not some grand conspiracy they have been flying by the seat of their pants for the last 5 years but it is starting to come together.

Washington D.C. is a direct reflection of the nation, No one knows what to do so they flock behind a popular ideology. They don’t know how to implement so they use the shotgun approach and when something sticks they go with it. If they had any idea of where they were trying to go they could have achieved their objective 4 years ago. This is the story of politics, the blind leading the blind, self interest above all else. The end results are that we give up more freedom, pay more taxes and allow the government more power to control every aspect of our lives. Call it what you want, all I know is that I don’t subscribe to the ideology that is being rammed down our throats and I object to paying more taxes to pay for it.

Now we have reached a point where we are being forced to do the wrong thing to affect change but that is a subject for another conversation.

New Poll.

It seems that a new poll has been published about how people view themselves and the results are pretty telling about our society. 96% of the people polled view themselves as average to above average intellectually. These are the same folks that don't know who the Vice President of the United States is, they think Obamacare is free, the Federal Reserve is a public institution and don't know the IMF from BRB or some other useless acronym. I know that this self inflated opinion depends on your point of reference but if you believe you are at least as smart as everyone else it shuts down the desire to learn and that my friends is exactly why the population in this country is so stupid. Totally dependent on other people to tell you what to think and easily manipulated by a good lie.

This is nothing new but it does point to a much greater self deception than in the past. Unfortunately this almost unanimously thought concept of intellect has never been more prominent than in the very people we elect to represent us in the Federal Government. We believed the lies and now we suffer the consequences but somehow it is not their fault - are you kidding me ? I am not so sure the population has the ability of independent thought or are we so intent on fitting in that we have lost the instinct for self preservation ? Maybe the new self preservation is gaming the system, 35% of the population has some type of government assistance. This doesn't include Social Security or Medicare - we paid into to those - this is welfare, food stamps, Medicaid, subsidized health care, subsidized housing loans ..... etc. Who in the heck do you think pays for this stuff ?

Don't for a minute think that I am subscribing to the idea that we have been duped by some slick talking politicians or that there is some grand plan to socialize our country. The truth is that we are stupid and it is far easier to be stupid and blend in than to do the research and fight back. It is far easier to forget the skin we have in the game .......wait, maybe the 96% of the people polled don't have skin in the game. What ever the excuse the facts are the facts. Politicians are stupid, they don't think past whatever stupid idea they have and never consider the consequences. At this point in our history they are taking advantage of a dumbed down populace never thinking about consequences but taking all the power and money they can get away with. It isn't some grand plan it is simply taking advantage of the situation.

   

Trying to accumulate.

There are so many tool and hardware items I still have to replace but today's quality really sucks. The bottom line is that no one really cares and as time passes no one knows the difference. Like the quality of life everything is being down graded with very little resistance.

Barb dragged me to an auction the other day and here is what I got - yesterdays trash and happy to have it.

I've been thinking lately.

I know this is an unusual condition for me - to be thinking but never-the-less I have been know to do it once in a while. The thought process was about how much easier it is to figure stuff out when Barb helps. I always ask for her opinion but after I think I have it figured out. We are polar opposites as far as life experiences are concerned but surprisingly synonymous on life issues. Barb carries complete dominance of her life experiences as I do mine but because we are both headed in the same direction we get along - a lot better than most. The reason that a person who by all rights should be a staunch liberal and a person who should be a stalwart conservative can occupy the same space at the same time is because neither one of us has the inflexibility of ideology. Ideology is the ignorance of society.

Ray started this post but has gone out to check on the chickens and I've noticed he is way over his head on the direction of this post so I'll see if he notices the following.

We started making audios together to reflect what goes on in our discussions.  We have differing views on many topics and our conversations involve a back-and-forth exchange of ideas.  What you hear on the audios is not a reflection of our everyday conversations, because we are aware that we are recording and stay on-topic.  I assure you that this doesn't happen in real life. The audios do reflect the give-and-take that goes on when we talk.

Ray and I are different, as different, as my Gramps would have said, as chalk and cheese.  We share some traits,  Common sense is one of them, We can look at an event and what the reactions are to it, and recognize the nonsense for what it is.  Additionally, we have the common goal of being able to take care of ourselves as we grow older.

So when you hear one of our audios, you are hearing us pretty much as we really talk to one another. I'll try to get better at it as we continue.

Turn your back and this is what you get. The chickens, that Barb was so worried about in a thunder storm, are fine and in the time it took to drive 16 miles she's taken over my blog. Truth be told I am glad she contributed. Anyway you can click the link to check out our latest.Conformity or Common Sense

When the tide turns.

I don't know about you but I know I have been waiting for the tide to change in this country for 5 years. A case in point was the Annual Washington Correspondents Dinner last night. I don't like watching the news so I skimmed over an article this morning, some AP release. I know it is Sunday and I should be reflecting on other things but because I read some of the stuff from this gathering of folks who are supposed to cover the news on a daily basis of the guy making the yokes, now I am mad. This stuff isn't funny, all I can see is the real intent of the supposed funny comments. Changing his slogan from " Yes We Can " to "Ctrl - Alt - Del" is not funny but it is the truth. Control the media, Alter our behavior and Delete our way of life. Does that sound funny to you ? Do you think it is coincidence that Boehner wants to appoint a Select Committee on Benghazi 4 days ahead of his hotly contested primary in Ohio ? None of this stuff is funny. How about this - while this administration says it wants to stop the confrontation in the Ukraine by imposing sanctions on a couple of people while the head of the IMF threatens to withdraw the $17 billion loan to the Ukraine if they don't fight Russia.

If the tide doesn't turn soon the key note speaker at the Annual Washington Correspondents Dinner will raise my blood pressure so high I will have a heart attack - you think maybe I have the basis for a law suit ?

You can check out the progress on the house building and other stuff by clicking this link Exterior Sheathing

All signs point to........me.

Every now and then I prove how inept I can be. My last post was one of those times, when I tried to use two different microphones on an audio clip. I read about how to do this using an embedded computer program to adjust the 2 different feeds into one file. My thought process ( if you can call it that ) was that if I stripped the wires back on both microphones, bugged them together into one USB connector it would be like one microphone - you know a parallel connection. Well Barb talked me out of that idea because the one headset with microphone I use was really expensive and if I wanted to ruin something I should get a cheaper headset. Now with a cheaper headset I could use both headsets with microphones, plug them into different USB ports and use the computer program to adjust the levels and away we go. It really looked good on the voice level monitors in the program and I adjusted and adjusted and adjusted until the play back sounded pretty good on the headset I was using. The results of all that monkeying around were terrible when I posted the audio file. I have since tried my idea using a USB expansion plug ( essentially a parallel connection ) and the program still splits the signals and the quality really sucks.

I really think getting Barbs opinion on these posts from a first person stand point is a good idea, after all a man is only as good as the woman who stands with him and I've got a really good one. As long as she is willing to do this I will try other things to get this to work. This latest post is with a shared microphone and there is about 2 minutes of video on chicken waters at the beginning. You can check it out by clicking on this link http://youtu.be/6F-nPP_G2fs

Economic Anomaly.

I've been having some real issues with my forecasting model on the economics front. I've always been sure of how things play out for my chosen path in life. Now I am not so sure. I think I have found the problem and my own stupidity has a lot to do with it. Here is a short audio to explain.

Thanks for your patronage.

Happy Easter

I hope everyone has a Happy Easter and stays mindful of the reason for the celebration.

As usual you can click on this link to keep track of what we are up to Happy Easter

I Guess I Should Know Better.

I guess I should know better than to make remarks and not back them up. So here is the explanation of  how we have destroyed the world monetary system and how this president has devalued the dollar to the point of losing the reserve currency status.

We had a market collapse in real estate caused by greedy bankers and corrupt politicians that allowed them to get away with it. We lost 40% of our wealth but instead of dealing with the resulting deflation by getting behind a national leader that knew something we elected a political novice, almost any other candidate would have done the right thing in dealing with the ensuing market crash. The Fed had to supply dollars to prop up deflating asset values and a monetary stimulus to prevent a depression was on auto pilot. The problem was the actions this new Chief Executive took when spending the stimulus money. Instead of breaking up the big banks that caused the crash he bailed them out, calling them too big to fail. At this point we entered into a depression - in all fairness we would have had the depression either way but it would have been over long ago if he had invested our money into infrastructure instead of fantasy and taken control of the sub prime mortgages and derivatives and sold them off after the now smaller banks minus their executive officers, stabilized. Instead of bailing out a private auto maker and literally giving it to the unions, let the market take it's course. It would have been bad economically for a year or two but the problems would have been solved. Instead we have ended up owning the bad mortgages anyway through quantitative easing, are way far in debt and the banks are going to fail anyway because they are still doing the things that got us in this mess in the first place. What I am saying is that because we have elected a guy who has no clue - twice - all we have done is spend a whole lot of money we didn't have to make the problem worse. I guess a miracle could happen and we only go through a short deflationary period when the stock market corrects and the real estate bubble collapses again, then hyper inflation when the dollar collapses because of all the money printing but that would truly be a miracle. I am afraid we are in for much worse. This administration has mismanaged every aspect of our government so badly that what we have experienced the last 5 years will soon be called the good old days. The Fed has printed so much money and devalued our dollar so much that the entire world has had to do the same to their currencies in order to trade with us and remain competitive in a world dominated by the dollar. The only thing we export these days is inflation. This lunacy has gone on for so long that other nations are now forming their own trade groups to circumvent the dollar. This administrations insistence on imposing sanctions at every turn instead of doing what we are legally bound to do is nails in the coffin of the US dollar as the world reserve currency forcing trade alliances to get away from our influence. Several years ago this administration signed onto an agreement with the International Monetary Fund to replace the dollar with the SDR for reserve currency status but I suppose no one has heard about that. 22 new taxes in Obamacare, 442 new taxes in the last 5 years. It's too late to start paying attention now - the cards have already been dealt, we're all in with a busted flush.

It really is a sad day when an old redneck like me can figure out that what we are doing is unsustainable - the real question is how long can these greedy little bastards drag it out before it all falls apart and how much can they extract from us legally before they confiscate everything.

 

What happened while we weren't paying attention ?

It has been a couple of years since this picture was taken of me sitting in Parque de Calderon, Cuenca Ecuador. The story being we under estimated the damage one man could do to the U.S. and we could sit out the stupidity until he was replaced in the 2012 elections. Wrong on both counts as it turned out.

It is far better to defend your existence in home territory than from a foreign land. I will have to admit that things here in the U.S. are far worse than we expected and getting worse every day. To a red neck like me it seems pretty straight forward - the people of this country have allowed the Marxist element of our society to take control of the government. The gamers of the system, the people who were the poets and philosophers of my generations grand experiment in communes. The ones that never contributed but had to be supported by the rest. How is that any different than what has happened to our entire population, where the hard working tax paying folks are supporting half of the people in this country. Doesn't it make sense to make an effort to get the gamers to be productive - oh wait a minute - there is no work for them to do because the stimulus was spent on stupid stuff like giving a private company ( GM ) to the unions and bailing out the very banks that started this mess to begin with and how about all the free energy we are getting from the alternatives energy sector that was created on our dime. The economic down turn as a result of political corruption and personal greed by the banks was and still is the greatest opportunity to instill a socialist regime it our society since Hitler invaded Poland. The only thing this idiot didn't lie about is that he plans to fundamentally change America.

The problem is not wholly owned by the politicians and big banks, there is plenty of blame to be put on the American people, we allowed this to happen. It is a lot harder to fix a problem once it has occurred than to head it off before it happens. This guy has run guns to the Mexican drug dealers, destroyed our National reputation, left Americans to die for political purposes, used government organizations to promote him personally and attack his opponents, given government organizations a free pass to intrude into our personal lives, personally launched attacks on our constitutional rights, instituted the biggest tax increase in American history (Obamacare), assaulted our veterans and is in the process of gutting our military, single handedly destroyed our Foreign Policy and now he talks about income equality. We the people have allowed this to happen and now We the People will suffer the consequences. I hope you pay attention to this blog and youtube channel and others like it because you are in for a rude awakening. We the People have not only caused irreparable damage to our own country but we have destroyed the entire world monetary system and in the process allowed our great nation to become a passenger on the bus.

You can click on this link Spring chores to keep track of what we are up to.

Installing the septic system

Finally it all came together and the septic system got installed this week. I don't have anything derogatory to say today, so you can safely click on this link Septic System Installation and not have to listen to my political pontification.

Is there any honesty left in America ?

This is the second day in a row I have had to defend government policy I don't agree with. Today my computer is flooded with doom and gloom over a new monetary policy taking effect July 1st this year. They say it will destroy the dollar, oh the world is coming to an end. What they are talking about is that FATCA (Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act) will go into effect on July 1st this year. This was one of the reasons we unretired from South America, so I know a thing or two about it.

This was one of the first things this administration did back in 2009 and it got delayed and delayed again and then once more until this year for full implementation. Some parts of the law have already taken effect in 2011 but full implementation won't happen until this year. This policy is unconstitutional to begin with and simply put keeps U.S. dollars from leaving the U.S. by attaching a 30% penalty to any money going overseas. Like the new healthcare law this law is administered by the IRS and like the ACA the administration will impose more rules as soon as FATCA is installed fully.

I don't like this law, I think it goes against the constitution on several fronts, it has never seen the light of day in the Ways and Means Committee - which means even the Republicans are afraid of the implications. But it will not lead to the destruction of the dollar nor will it cause inflation, it has already caused a certain amount of deflation, it's been on the books for almost 5 years the damage has already been done. It certainly goes a long way to help with the destruction of emerging markets and it will certainly wreak havoc in the expat community when the new monetary controls are put in place in the very near future. Be aware of the law and it's implications but don't fall prey to the misinformation.

You can click on this link http://youtu.be/tWV7MVFJAFc to keep track of the building projects and alternatives to build your equity in our failing economy.

The chicken house & bird brained economics

I read an article the other day about the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and how this Legarde woman - who heads the IMF was complaining about how hard it was to implement inflation. You know the new head of the Federal Reserve has also said as much. There are two people who have the power to help the economy out and they believe we have to have higher inflation to fix the economy. Both are supposed to be non partisan and both are bending over backwards to accommodate the politicians. 

We the people are being played as a monetary fund for them to grab more control and power, meanwhile our standard of living collapses while the 47% who don't pay taxes are getting more benefits every day and the ones here illegally are gaming the system with the help of the current administration. You don't think it can get any worse ? Wait for it, what other choice do you have.

I did a little audio track on the progress of the building projects and I had a little to say about monetary policy.

Common Cents about Gold

The Gold merchants are going nuts - the price of gold is falling. I've never been able to understand why folks think gold is some kind of safe haven against the ills of mankind. Maybe it would be in some third world country but not here and not today.

I've got a new helper.

I used to get visits from the local wild turkeys and deer but last week that all ended with the addition of a new helper on the construction site.

I remember a few months back my neighbor to the west said he had picked up a dog at the dump. Well she started showing up every day. She picks up all my scrap lumber and helps me eat any food I bring out to the site in addition to chasing the local wildlife. So I guess I will get my Silver Queen corn this year and hopefully get some early warning when the bears come by. I haven't noticed any raccoon tracks and the two foxes that hung out around the site seem to have disappeared. All in all I would say she is a welcome addition to this one man crew.

You can check out the progress on the projects by clicking this link Stairs & Studs 

Common Cents Economics

Nothing brings economic awareness to the forefront of daily issues like tax filing season. Once in awhile people will venture into the melting pot, talk to folks they don't normally talk to, read what is inside of a newspaper or peer over the self erected barriers that keep them from the real world. Then all of a sudden they realize things aren't so great and maybe they should pay more attention. The realization soon passes and they again immerse themselves into oblivion hoping that by ignoring the facts the bad stuff will go away, never grasping that if they don't deal with bad stuff and it doesn't go away they lose self determination.

One such event happened recently at the grocery store when the prices in the dairy aisle went up 10% overnight. All of a sudden the chatter in the check out lanes was all about the  price increases. Where have these people been for the last 5 years ? By the end of the week, no more talk about the price increases. The facts are that we have not recovered economically from the recession of 2008/2009 which by classic definition makes it a depression. How many folks get food stamps ? That makes for some pretty long bread lines, which by comparison to the Great Depression and percentage of population in bread lines makes today's bread lines much longer and effecting a larger segment of society.

These types of things bring up the question of - why has the government not done anything to correct this problem of economic woes, unemployment, inflation, lowering standard of living, increasing tax burden on the working class, growing entitlement class, rising healthcare costs .....etc. After all they have the wherewithal to get us back on track. The answer is very simple; a socialist administration and a Federal Reserve using the wrong economic models. You couple that with a population of socialist leaning, under educated people and you get exactly what we have - a mess. Things are going to be different when this all shakes out. I hope you folks are ready.

Stairs and Studs click the link to the left or watch the video below for stair construction progress.

Blast from the Past

It was around this time of year when we decided to unretire. Two years ago sitting in the sun room of our apartment in Cuenca, Ecuador, Barb and I started talking about missing the changes in the seasons back in the U.S.. I had just gotten back from a week of working on the place in LaPaz when I mentioned that the same weather every day was getting to be a bit of a drag after almost 2 years. As it turned out that innocent comment was the straw that broke the camels back. We talked all night about the things we missed in the U.S., the idea that Obama couldn't possibly be re-elected after all the damage he had done, what the implications of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, if we stayed in Ecuador, would have on us and could we really start all over again back in the States. In the following weeks we figured out where we would like to live back in the U.S. and started to research the areas we liked. The process went from sending Barb back to the States on an exploratory mission to forget about thinking this thing to death, lets just go. If we land in the wrong place we'll go somewhere else. By June we were gone from South America.

That's the way it happened almost two years ago, it was a fun experience but no way for us to live out the rest of our lives. As it turned out Obama was re-elected to inflict even more damage on our economy and raise our taxes and ruin our health care system. We have started over and we are doing pretty well but we have had to take a offensive posture in our re-building and financial matters, especially in the arena of equity management.

The biggest problem we see in the future is that the change everyone is hoping for in the market place and standard of living ( the economy ) will never come. The change has already happened - a much larger entitlement population, higher prices, more taxes and a lower standard of living for most of us who work for a living. It's mostly down hill from here. There are alternatives, we just have to work on them, instead of thinking things will change somehow by ignoring the facts.

http://youtu.be/7Bhdpooop0U
You can click on the link above to check out the stair building on the house project.

Progress Report

I've got the chicken shed closed in and a spiffy blue roof on it.

I'll go over the whole thing once I get it trimmed out, the windows and doors cut in and Barb paints it.

Progress Report

You can click on the link above labeled Progress Report to hear the excuses for taking so long on this project.