Thanks to Sarah for your kind words - I wish I were all that you think I am. There really is nothing to building but a strong back and a weak mind are helpful. I think you may like my next project. Starting next spring I will be building a spec house in the Ashville, NC area.
To Mike - there is no recovery time on the water filter, the flow rate is high enough that water will run in perpetuity. I hope you caught your limit.
I have been pontificating lately about the economic outlook for Ecuador and the U.S.. We have a vested intrest in both countries and it seems they both share the same fate because they both use the same currency. There is no doubt the economy in the U.S. is the worst it has ever been in my lifetime and that Ecuador is being dragged into the frey by the devaluation of the dollar. The fact is that following an economic downturn there is a certain amount of inflation, which has a direct relationship to the length and depth of the economic downturn. Since the recession in the U.S. has lasted so long and has affected everything the rate of inflation will reach the "hyper" range as the market and politics self correct in the next year or two. Ecuador has already started trading in the sucre and out of economic necessity will have to move away from the dollar if they don't want to share the same fate as the U.S.. They will also need to distance themselves from trading with the U.S. and depend more on the Bolivarian Alliance for the economic needs of the country. The U.S. is just heading for more doom and gloom and it will take years to harness run away inflation and develope an energy independence policy and re-invent the manufacturing sector that is necessary for economic stability.
I originally started to write this blog to keep friends and family entertained by my shenanigans and the stuff I do to keep myself busy but I have found that a lot more folks read this blog than family. I can tell you folks this without reservation, I may seem to be an old fool but I can forcast the economy a lot better than most. That's why we are in Ecuador, to buy time until the future becomes clear and it don't look good. If you don't do something that follows the economy your going to take a hit in your standard of life, especially if you are on a fixed income - South America, Europe, Asia or the U.S. makes no difference. If your income stream is in dollars you need to do something to keep up with the rate of inflation.
"Since the recession in the U.S. has lasted so long and has affected everything the rate of inflation will reach the 'hyper' range as the market and politics self correct in the next year or two."
ReplyDeleteWhat's your reasoning here? Won't the Fed just stop quantitative easing, contract the money supply, and raise interest rates to prevent runaway inflation a la Volcker?
Nice post Ray,I enjoy your unique point of view. I've always suspected that you are much more intelligent than you lead one to believe. I have a web site you may be interested in reading. It's called Sovereign Man (http://www.sovereignman.com/).Thanks for blogging. Steve from South of Zero.
ReplyDeleteHi Ray - I always love your posts. Although I like the construction projects and photos quite a bit, I disagree with your "weak mind" assessment. It might seem tedious to write about, but I would like to hear more about your perspective of the US economy from outside the border.
ReplyDeleteMy feeling is that both inflation and lending/earning rates will stay in the low single digits for the next five years (until a Republican is elected president *ugh*). I'm curious to know your view on a 5/10 year outlook on the US economy.
I completely agree with your view on the manufacturing section needing to grow in the states, but global diversification of large manufacturing companies will likely prevent that (at least until a sense of isolationism returns).
Keep posting, my friend. Even if I disagree with you, you are always insightful and reasoned. That type of conversation can only benefit both sides.
I believe Ray is more in tune than you think. I feel it, myself, and i am not near as smart, as he is. My husband and I are planning for a rainy day, and folks, it is sprinkling already.
ReplyDeleteEcuador already had to change currencies recently, just 12 years ago, and they can easily do it again just like they did before. Anybody who is thinks inflation is only in the low single digits must not have purchased anything in many years. The real rate of dollar devaluation is in the low two digits. Calculate how much the cost of anything not government subsidized over the last three years has gone up and I guarantee you it will be three times or more the percentage reported by the moneychangers in the U.S. government. Average the yearly percentage of increase on several categories eliminating government subsidized products, U.S. Real Estate, and computer memory and you are in the low DOUBLE digits. The rate of dollar devaluation is literally the rate of theft. How can you believe the reported rate of theft of 3.4% for 2011? Can you trust a thief to tell you how much he is stealing? As far as republican or democrat is concerned there does not seem to be a dime's worth of difference in their economic policies when you look at what they actually do. It looks to me like Barb and Ray are living in the real world and just look at things for what they are.
ReplyDelete